0. It was first repurposed as a formula to identify an optimal betting system in horse racing. For any queries relating to Betting. Kelly Jr. But then the prices started. This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non. f = 0. I think he was right. 5pt EW) settled at BSP: +5. The Kelly Criterion is a strategy that can be used in several. 35 = 0. Jun 16, 2023 By Rebecca Martin Multiple strategies in the sports betting world claim to help bettors maximize their profits and manage their banks effectively. Racing. How to use the Kelly Criterion calculator. John Kelly developed his formula whilst working at AT&T’s Bell Laboratory when attempting to solve their long-distance signal noise issues. Any horse racing system must have a money management component built in. In an example in which you think a horse should be 6 to 4 (40% chance of winning) and its odds are 5/2 (or 2. Red Mile VP Sees Sports Betting as Boost for Kentucky Horse Racing. For any other Betfair-related queries, head to customer support. input 0. If 3 bets were made every week, it would take The calculator has 3 modes which you can use to do this. The Kelly Criterion is comprised of two basic components. Horse Racing Tips: Tommie can be our rock in Sunday 9/1 Fontwell multiple ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Rachael Blackmore: Ain't That A Shame can go well in Troytown Handicap Chase; Horse. Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick;. ) Of course, this begs the question: Why use the Kelly Criterion at all?The Kelly criterion, developed by John L. The Kelly criterion is a formula that can be used to determine the optimal size of a bet. It can also be a. This isn't a strong nursery and. The odds are in your favor, but read the following carefully: According to the Kelly criterion your optimal bet is about 5. Heva Rose had some fairly useful form over hurdles and fences when trained in France but she has failed to make an impact over hurdles since joining. Use this if you have a crystal ball that tells you the true probabilities. Part 1 of this series provides an introduction to the Kelly criterion along with a worked example. Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Patrick right up our street for Dundalk 54/1 Wednesday doubleWhen making crucial sports betting decisions, it is not just important to find the right sports events to bet on but to also have an appropriate strategy to divide or manage your financial portfolio. Rugby World Cup Final. 2 days ago · Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Patrick right up our street for Dundalk 54/1 Wednesday. You can find these same numbers in the image above, and the Kelly Criterion Formula expresses it as follows: (0. In other words, according to the Kelly Criterion, in this case, football lovers should stake 0. B = 1 (decimal odds of 2. In general, such replacement of population parameters. You need to input the probability (according to your own assessment) that your selection will win. Kelly Jr. Six-year-olds have won 11 of the 17 renewals which is clearly, a significant trend. Get a better job. 00. The multiplier is normally set to 50%, for an aggressive betting strategy set it to 100%. Multiples 2021 to present: +20. The Kelly Criterion can be a great tool in the pocket of all sports bettors. Twitter user @optibrebs recently made me aware of the generalised Kelly Criterion (a. Horse Racing Schedule; Harness Racing Schedule; Stakes Races Schedule; Kentucky Derby Prep Races; Racetracks; Odds. More. Completely Free Football Bet: Editor best bets including 18/1 Acca and 26/1 Bet Builder. Golf. Knappers Hill (Paul Nicholls/Harry Cobden) Unbeaten in bumpers, including a Grade 2, and stretched unbeaten record to 5 with novice hurdle wins in. 6%) but your estimate of the ‘true’ probability of the draw is 30%. You are a corrupt telegraph operator, providing a ‘private wire’ service that transmits messages reporting horse racing results to anyone who can afford to pay you. The number of bets considered here should also be discussed. The worksheet tracks your bets and provides in-depth performance data as well as a profit graph. It helps tells us the odds or likelihood of each outcome and helps us determine what size bet to place on each outcome. 7 7/2 when they made their hurdling. 5) – 60)/2) = 16% of your bank. xh is the amount we will wager on horse h, Oh is the decimal payout odds for horse h, which we assume are fixed, and w is our current wealth. The big man, City Of Troy, is still in the race though and he is the 1/2 1. Here are five tips to help you use the Kelly sports betting strategy more effectively. Kelly betting or proportional betting is an application of information theory to investing and gambling. 20. Completely Free Football Bet: Editor best bets including 18/1 Acca and 26/1 Bet Builder. Patrick Weaver says: "Willie Mullins' Vauban is favourite 3. The Kelly Criterion. Draw. In horse racing, this is based on the player's own handicapping of the race. 00. Horse Racing; Sports; Strategy; Tools; Punting Stars. Timeform's Andrew Asquith highlights a Nap, Next Best and Each-Way selection at Beverley on Thursday. It is a formula created by John Kelly to bet with discipline and make sure to always protect yourself, rather than go for the home run each time. Mixed Martial Arts Tips. This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non-mutually exclusive bets. The first of these is the probability of a positive outcome, or a winning trade. Ascot - Saturday 15:40 - Back Simca Mille. I therefore recommend using the more sophisticated generalised Kelly Criterion wherever possible as it is superior to the simplified Kelly Criterion. Unsurprisingly, the volatility or variance in the evolution of the bankroll is greatest for full-Kelly and least for eighth-Kelly. 8. He was sired by Sebring out of the Bite The Bullet mare Mica's Pride. to identify how to maximize the long-term growth rate of investments and has since been used successfully. Kelly criterion as part of a horse racing system article any horse racing system must have a money management component built in this is of paramount importance without this component it is still possible to lose huge sums of money no matter how much research a punter does. 60 to get 0. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a. Load more library articles. So if your getting 6/4 on an 1/1 shot your edge is 2. This is important, since in the latter case. Brechin Castle cost £165,000 after winning his point in impressive fashion and he created an excellent. It was developed in 1956 by John Larry Kelly Jr. K. 30 June 2010. Total Performance Data have recorded his max stride at 26. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;Criterion is a 12 year old horse that was born in 2011 and raced from 2013 to 2016. Team2 wins. a. The Kelly criterion is a useful tool for making informed decisions about how to allocate capital when betting on horse races, particularly when considering a single type of bet (Benter 1994) -most. Here at Betting. This means that the optimal size of your bet is 10% of your bankroll. The Kelly criterion: exploiting favorable bets and the stock market In many ways this is my favorite topic to talk about. resource for various forms of investing too, as its primary. Venera. Blackbow was ultimately only fifth in a two-mile-five-furlong handicap chase at the Dublin Racing Festival, but he looked set to make a much bigger impact for most of. Such an outcome may apply to blackjack and horse racing, but rarely to capital markets investments. If you bet less than 10%, you’re not taking full advantage of. com. BTW, Thorpe, started the counting craze in BJ. There are n horses in the race, and the probability of horse h winning is πh. But as always, the dots connect and your circle of competence will play a major role in determining the probabilities of. L. 66% of your bank. Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage. Before addressing your investment strategy, learn about the Kelly criterion and see if it’s a fit for you. In relation to sports betting, it’s. 45)/1=0. 8 – 0. If I apply the Kelly Criterion based upon the historical odds of that factor 7/2, instead of true post odds, is that a valid way of applying Kelly? Furthermore, I created an Excel Spreadsheet to analyze my results, and based upon my Kelly formula, it says that I can bet 9. Bettors, particularly those betting on events with high levels of variance like Horse Racing tend to lean to the cautious side and divide the amount the criterion suggests by three or four up to 20 or 25 depending on swings. Overall: +33. 14% July = -7. Already the winner of 17 races - including the Stewards' Cup in 2020 and the Group 3 Abernant Stakes in 2021 - Summerghand lines up here under a 5 lb penalty for his York effort and seems sure to. Using the Kelly Criterion formula, the bettor would calculate the optimal bet size as follows: f = (0. Get the best bets for this Saturday's horse racing at Ascot and beyond from tipsters Kevin Blake, Tony Calvin, Kate Tracey and Timeform. In order to use it, your selection process must be able to identify the expected probability of your horse winning. The first is attributing probability to a positive outcome of a selected bet and the second is a win-loss calculation. Join Betfair and Bet £10 Get £30 in free bets!Football. Here’s what the variables in the Kelly Criterion formula look like based on these conditions. To overcome the bookmaker's margin you need. 05 2/1 coming off second best to Pied Piper 4. The most popular methodology for determining the optimal wager size is the Kelly Criterion. Much later, investors adopted the idea, with investors such as Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Jim Simons, and Mohnish Pabrai embracing. For any other Betfair-related queries, head to customer support. Note that if the formula is absolutely strictly applied, one would literally never make an. Kelly’s work focused on optimizing information transmission over a noisy channel. 73 feet. It just happens to coincide with log-utility. Kelly Staking is in its simplest form, your edge divided by the fractional price your’re backing at. Correspondence Address: Triq il-Kappillan Mifsud, St. The formula takes into account the probability of winning a bet, the odds of the bet, and the bettor’s bankroll size. You then multiply 2 and 0. Using the Kelly Criterion formula, we can calculate the optimal fraction of your bankroll to bet as: f* = ( (2. For standard Kelly betting, set the fractional Kelly betting value to 1. Kelly Criterion Horse Racing example. 80 on the Sportsbook. 4 feet, with elite performers such as Frankel, Sea The Stars and. Eat healthy. However, the coin is biased and has a 52% chance of ending up on heads. Only Starman (Evens) and Harry Angel (6/4. Kelly´s theory is designed to maximize the growth of your bank roll (e. provide sports betting tips, news and analysis for Australian punters. while working at AT&T's Bell Laboratories. French Horse Racing Tips from the betting experts at betting. Jacot. — Gabe Prewitt of the Red Mile has been overseeing the start of the 2023 live racing season here at the. The formula is as follows: f = the fraction of the bankroll to bet. In particular, it maximizes the expected growth rate and the. 10st 9lbs. The first is attributing probability to a positive outcome of a selected bet and the second is a win-loss. The equation tells you exactly how much to bet on each “hand” so that you can survive to keep playing. . This concept goes back to the days of horse racing, where there were. Wednesday - Windsor Castle: Back Barnwell Boy. The best staking plan debate. I wouldn't like to be laying Hamish at 100/1 101. Monthly Breakdown. 50 ($1250 x 25% = $312. Red Mile VP Sees Sports Betting as Boost for Kentucky Horse Racing. In his book Commonsense Betting, which is arguably the finest book written on the betting and the mathematics of horse-racing, US author Dick Mitchell wrote about various staking plans. I think he was right. These are bets where there is no one-to-one correspondence between the bets and the possible outcomes of the game. Matej Uhrín, Gustav Šourek, Ondřej Hubáček, Filip Železný. Recording and reviewing . The Kelly Criterion is a method of analyzing your odds and assigning a number to those odds. a betting fund) over the long term by determining the optimal stake on a. To be honest I have been successfully using the simple/naïve Kelly Criterion for years and haven’t bothered looking anywhere else. 10 Ideas for Trifecta Profits (Part 1) The late Don Scott once wrote that the best form of exotic betting is the trifecta. Published in 1956, the Kelly Criterion was quickly adopted by gamblers for use in horse racing. The actual Kelly Standard: A serious Research Of your own Popular Staking Method – current horse racing odds. Kelly Criterion maximizes the wealth in the long-run. Golf. Find out who the traders are afraid of this Festival. With hand waving and basic math you can also use it to help guide. Kelly himself was an interesting character: a chain smoking Texan who used to be a fighter pilot in the Navy during World War 2, he was also brilliant researcher. evident from looking at the Kelly Criterion graph. Kelly Criterion Calculator Excel. He started life as data analyst in the digital marketing field before find his true calling in the world of Football and Horse Racing Betting. The best staking plan debate. 20 or 20%. Premier League Opta Stats: 10 bets including 5/1 scorer tip and 5/1 Bet Builder at Stamford Bridge. Editor. Kelly of AT&T Bell Laboratories, the Kelly Criterion is a formula designed to boost betting profits by determining the ideal percentage of capital to be staked on each wagering event. It's free to sign up and bid on jobs. The Kelly Criterion is a formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets. Named after its inventor, John L. Kelly’s base assumption that 100% of capital can be allocated to a single bet necessitates that the formula is naturally cautious when sizing a position that has potential loss. NAP. It functions as an investment scale, balancing the equity between risk and reward. Of course, the Kelly has also been adapted for other "bets," including blackjack. US Horse Racing Tips as our US tipsters at TVG and Timeform. who was a mathematician at Bell Labs in the 1950s. However, it can be complicated to use if you are not used to it. Based on this equation and outcome, you should only be wagering 10 percent of your bankroll on the proposed wager. Claim one token. If the downside-case loss is less than 100%, as in the scenario above, a different Kelly formula is required: Kelly % = W/A – (1 – W)/B , where W is the win probability, B is the profit in the event of a win (20%), and A is the potential loss. 6 hours ago · He won over 7f from a mark of 73, but looked ahead of that mark with a dead straightforward performance. This is of paramount importance. function is to create the right balance between risk and reward. With hand waving and basic math you can also use it to help guide your investment decisions. However, for any of those outcomes, there are only two outcomes to the gambler's bankroll: The gambler bet on the correct outcome of the team game. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;Featured Rugby. Remember that value betting is a long term strategy requiring many, many bets to achieve a statistically significant outcome. However, in order to reach that conclusion, we must wager with a flat betting plan for a large number of bets. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;More Betfair. Without the right knowledge and strategy on how much to wager on a particular event, you could easily plunge yourself into a pit of losses. Learn how much you need to stake with the help of our easy-to-use Kelly Criterion bet calculator!Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Patrick right up our street for Dundalk 54/1 Wednesday doubleYard seeking a fourth win in this since 2014. 66pts P/L: +210. In relation to sports betting, it’s. “The Las Vegas Grand Prix was the most bet F1 event. Kelly. A new formulation of the fractional Kelly strategy, which involves betting a fixed fraction of the amount suggested by the Kelly criterion, is also presented for this type of scenario. The first of these is the probability of a positive outcome, or a winning trade. It’s ultimately designed to maximize profits and returns across sports betting and is becoming a staple for many when betting on soccer, NFL, and horse racing. 00 x 0. The 20/1 21. Dimitar Berbatov. Betting 5000 times may be unrealistic for most. Tony McFadden. A more general problem was considered in. Based on the Kelly criterion, K% = (1 × 0. Featured Football. Betfair, our. Betfair, e-mail Copy@betfair. This project is a fork (offshoot) of the standard version (v2. Horse Racing Bet of the Day is replacing our. Of course, the bracket has to be reduced in this year's race because of a lack of strength and depth. If we did this with a stake of £100, when both those orders matched, we would. This improvement has arrived in time for the big meetings of the Flat racing season but we hope you will enjoy using it at all stages of the horse racing calendar. L. Next, you take 0. Staked: 249pts Returns: 459. Without this component, it is still possible to lose huge sums of money no matter how much research a bettor does. The ultimate value betting calculator. Golf. In such a case, the Kelly criterion suggests that if one were to go over 20% repeatedly on a low. Following the Kelly criterion, the process of betting is closely connected to information theory (K elly Jr, 1956). The formula is therefore suggesting that 20% of the portfolio be stake 20% of your bankroll. She. That, in a nutshell, is how the Kelly Criterion works. 00) and should not include any additional symbols such. This post provides an introduction. Thorp. She slips back. 5pt EW) settled at BSP: +5. While it is possible to create a simple spreadsheet that will execute the Kelly Criterion Formula, there is no. , -200 odds and shorter) because the Kelly Calculator struggles with “sure things. The Kelly Criterion – also known as the Kelly Strategy or Kelly Staking Plan – takes elements from fixed, percentage and progressive staking to create somewhat of a hybrid staking plan. a. Jacot+1. Bets must settle before 23:59 on the day they're placed. This type of situation is common in horse racing, where multiple types of bets are available for a. while reducing volatility. Correspondence Address: Triq il-Kappillan Mifsud, St. s = b * (o / f. Most only know a simplified version. In his book Commonsense Betting, which is arguably the finest book written on the betting and the mathematics of horse-racing, US author Dick Mitchell wrote about various staking plans. Bell and Cover (1988), discuss a game-theoretical optimality of Kelly portfolios. 60 – 0. Finally, in x7 we give some numerical examples to illustrate the methods. Betting 5000 times may be unrealistic for most. Getting staking right is key to profitable punting. With sports betting, however, you may feel the probability of an outcome is 50%, but you do not know that with certainty. In addition, betting with the Kelly Criterion may occasionally be worse than constant betting even after several thousand bets. The Dewhurst at 14:00 had 33 entries on Monday morning but we are down to 12 now. 16 August 2023. Kelly. WITH KELLY. You can read more about how it works in this Kelly Criterion Wikipedia article. Featured Horse Racing. Horse racing - In-running; ↳ Bet Angel Automation - Horse racing - Pre off; ↳ Bet Angel Automation - General;Horse Racing Tips: Blackmore to get us rolling at Punchestown with Thursday multiple ;. 0 in decimals, or a 20% implied probability of winning) at the Cheltenham Hurdle. Timeform Radio Tips on Betfair. This means that the bettor should wager 20% of their bankroll on Liverpool to win. We define the problem setting, the formal investment strategies and review their common modifications used in practice. Use this if you have a crystal ball that tells you the true probabilities. Get a £5 Free Bet on Multiples - Every Day! Place £20 worth of Multiples or Bet Builders over the course of a day, and, after the bets have settled, you'll get a free £5 bet to use on Multiples. The underlying purpose of the reviewed modifications is to mitigate the additional risk stemming from the unrealistic mathematical. 40)- 0. With all the prior odds, the equation will add up to this: ( (4x 0. 33). I would like to use Kelly Criterion but I do not manage to use it at more bets at the same time. The Kelly Criterion Model is a fascinating model that takes little knowledge of sports to be successful if executed properly. Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change. This works out at: (0. 48 B = 2-1 = 1. 9st 8lbs. A. Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Patrick right up our street for Dundalk 54/1 Wednesday doubleHorse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage. Betfair is where you can get the best horse racing tips for meetings in the UK, Ireland and. Kelly criterion staking approach aims to maximize your winning and protect your capital in losing runs. The Kelly Criterion is a relatively simple math equation to determine the percentage of your bankroll you should bet on any given circumstance, assuming you have an advantage. I don't have a strong betting opinion in the five-runner Voltigeur at 15:00, though I think layers of Gregory at around 5/4 2. The median rating is 149mean is 149. Using the Kelly Criterion formula, the bettor would calculate the optimal bet size as follows: f = (0. When writing, prolific three-year-old Shaquille is set to go off the shortest-priced favourite for this race in the last ten years. Most only know a simplified version. Tony Calvin has been in the racing and tipping business for over 25 years, encompassing a 12-year stint at the Racing Post and an 11-year spell as Head Of Media at Betfair. So if the chance of winning on a single bet is 80%, the bettor should wager 60% of one’s bankroll. Featured Horse Racing. Brookhouse. If 3 bets were made every week, it would takeThe calculator has 3 modes which you can use to do this. This means that the bettor should wager 20% of their bankroll on Liverpool to win. The Kelly betting criterion ignores uncertainty in the probability of winning the bet and uses an estimated probability. For any queries relating to Betting. f = 0. The Kelly Criterion is a formula to determine the proper size of a bet with known odds and a definite payout. ALAN DUDMAN'S P & L. Serial Winners. Premier League Opta Stats: 10 bets including 5/1 scorer tip and 5/1 Bet Builder at Stamford Bridge. Our approach is to adhere most closely to Kelly’s original ap-proachof maximizing the assets overthe long-term, given a probabilistic distribution at each investment. 55)-0. One was the 'square root' plan whereby a base bet is established, say $20, and each bet you place is $20 plus the square root of any. Part of Kelly's insight was to have the gambler maximize the expectation of the logarithm of his capital, rather than the expected profit from each bet. Daryl Carter's Tips: Chepstow, Warwick and Kempton all. (You can turn a negative ROI into a positive one — at least in games of skill like horse racing — through greater education and better information. Horse Racing Tips: Faith in Fanshawe's Willem for Wednesday 18/1 Kempton double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Ryan Moore: River Tiber holds leading claims in my Friday three; Horse Racing. Choose your own Horse Racing bet to boost by claiming a MyOddsboost token. It's most useful to determine the size of a position you should take. com. 6. at Bell Labs, is an optimal sizing of bets, given an initial pool of wealth, to maximize the doubling rate of wealth in a repeated bets scenario. Kelly described the optimal strategy for a single horse and gave an incomplete solution. For example, consider you are betting on a coin to land on heads at 2. Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's three new bets for Betfair Chase Day up to 12/1; Rachael Blackmore: Hoping classy Quilixios can run a big race in Grade 2 chase1 day ago · Licence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and for customers in the UK, licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039439-R-319330-007. Mochkovitch. 0= 1. Published in 1956, the Kelly Criterion was quickly adopted by gamblers for use in horse racing. Regarding traditional betting against bookmakers, on sports and horse racing, there is a lot of mythology and not much hard data on long-term success of professional gamblers. Therefore, as judged on the last 10 runnings of the race, a horse rated 149-150 is optimal. Football. evident from looking at the Kelly Criterion graph. If you’re looking to maximize investment returns, perhaps you should think like a gambler. 00 x 0. 80 and subtract 0. Mode 1: You know the true probability of an outcome and the soft bookmaker odds. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race; How to use Timeform Ratings;Football. The Kelly Criterion (a. 60) / 4 = 0. Monks Dream started at 150/1 and never figured on his debut in a big-field novice event at York on his debut in October, but he attracted. Multiples 2021 to present: +20. România. Murray Bridge Racecourse. Using the Kelly Criterion formula, we can calculate the optimal fraction of your bankroll to bet as: f* = ( (2. the optimal strategy for a single horse and gave an incomplete solution to the problem with. Kelly described. We develop a general framework to apply the Kelly criterion to the stock market data, and consequently, to portfolio optimization. and making a $10\%$ return. Introduction In the seminal paper [5], Kelly considered repeated betting on horse races. Horse Racing Tips: Dundalk duo look a solid pair for a Wednesday 50/1 double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 20/1 ex-pointer on rules debut at Chepstow. forms of gambling, including sports betting. 45) – 0. 2023 Daily Racing Multiple Column singles to 1pt stake (0. The underlying purpose of the reviewed modifications is to mitigate the. Bell and Cover (1988), discuss a game-theoretical optimality of Kelly portfolios. Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's three new bets for Betfair Chase Day up to 12/1;. ALAN DUDMAN'S P & L. Julie Johnston ran on well in the closing stages, though, suggesting a return to form may be near, and that race has worked out well with the first and third both winning next time. If the bet is successful, the bettor would win £36 for every £20 wagered. Introduction. Kelly Criterion User Name: Remember Me? Password: Google Site Search: Get RDSS: Sartin Library: RDSS FAQs: Conduct: Register: Site FAQ: Members List: Today's Posts: Search: General Discussion General Horse Racing DiscussionRespected under a 4 lb penalty. . Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Patrick right up our street for Dundalk 54/1 Wednesday. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: 4/1 Fry up some Ree Okka on Monday;. You just can't bet at that level. Note that if the formula is absolutely strictly applied, one would literally never make an. There are. 0 (100%), but if you do not want to wager the full. Horse Racing Tips: One drifter and a chaser to back for 48/1 Monday double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: 11/8 Adjuvant's flat speed can land Hereford opener; Horse. 50 (or 5/2 with an implied probability of 28. Kelly Criterion recommend risking 6% of your. In as vivid a display of a horse seizing defeat from the jaws of victory as one will ever see, Harper's Brook pulled himself up in front, slowing right down and allowing Gloire D'athon to beat him. betfair. WINNING ODDS In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet) is a formula for sizing a bet. To see the Kelly formula in action, let’s take an example of a football match where the odds available on the draw are 3. What the Kelly Criterion does is help you decide the perfect level of stake by. 1) Regardless of what you make the chance of the horse, 60%, 50%, 40% , 30% if the odds on offer are 4/1 your stake is 20 points. Aidan O'Brien's unbeaten River Tiber 9/43. Australia Sports Betting has developed a free staking plan Excel spreadsheet which doubles as a betting tracker.